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Economic Research on Africa

Analysing macroeconomic trends, policies, and industries shaping the continent’s future

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Development & Structure

The African Economics of 'Showing-Off' & Social Status

Nov 12, 2025

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17 min read

The African Economics of 'Showing-Off' & Social Status

Urban African households with low-mid incomes allocate large, out-sized shares of their budgets to luxury goods, nightlife, and status-signaling consumption, while savings rates remain stubbornly low and real capital/wealth accumulation lags far behind consumption growth. This is not irrational behavior it is strategic adaptation to environments where formal institutions are weak, inequality persists, and therefore traditional markers of wealth and paths to capital accumulation remain inaccessible. This leaves visibility and social status as the only substitute for those who feel real wealth and capital remains out of reach.

Tumiso Suping

Policy & Governance

Botswana's Diamond Crisis: Assessing How Effective the Government's Policies Have Been

Nov 6, 2025

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28 min read

Botswana's Diamond Crisis: Assessing How Effective the Government's Policies Have Been

This report finds that while the government's actions are necessary, they carry significant risks. Short-term policies have been reactive and sometimes contradictory. Long-term diversification plans face a history of slow implementation and are paradoxically tied to policies that increase the state's exposure to the volatile diamond sector. The recent public health emergency, caused by the fiscal crisis, highlights the social cost of this dependency.

Tumiso Suping

Capital & Financial Markets

How South Africa's gambling boom is reshaping the economy

Sep 15, 2025

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14 min read

How South Africa's gambling boom is reshaping the economy

South Africa’s gambling boom is now confirmed by Statistics South Africa, whose latest research reveals an explosive rise in online gambling and betting. This new data should fundamentally reframe the conversation: how does this reshaping household budgets, which businesses are supported and how is broader economy affected?

Tumiso Suping

Articles

Development & Structure

Nov 12, 2025

•

17 min read

The African Economics of 'Showing-Off' & Social Status

Tumiso Suping

Policy & Governance

Nov 6, 2025

•

28 min read

Botswana's Diamond Crisis: Assessing How Effective the Government's Policies Have Been

Tumiso Suping

Capital & Financial Markets

Sep 15, 2025

•

14 min read

How South Africa's gambling boom is reshaping the economy

Tumiso Suping

Macro & Geo Economics

Economic Insights: Uganda (01/07/25) - Navigating External Challenges and Fiscal Discipline Amid Robust Growth.

Jul 1, 2025

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37 min read

Economic Insights: Uganda (01/07/25) - Navigating External Challenges and Fiscal Discipline Amid Robust Growth.

In this week’s edition of Africa & Alpha, we make a critical assessment of Uganda’s macroeconomic landscape, characterised by strong real sector performance alongside mounting fiscal pressures and cautious monetary policy. We examine Uganda’s fiscal operations, monetary policy stance, trade developments, inflation trends, output growth, sovereign yield curve dynamics, and business confidence indicators.

Shawn Agaba

Macro & Geo Economics

Jul 1, 2025

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5 min read

Economic Insights: Nigeria (01/07/25)

Nigeria's economy showed mixed signals in Q1 2025. GDP growth reached 3.40% in 2024, with projections for 2025 at 3.70%. Nigeria’s trade surplus contrasts with South Africa’s Q1 2025 deficit (-$3.1bn), but trails Egypt’s export-led recovery (15% YoY growth). Continent-wide, digitalization and non-oil exports remain critical for resilience against commodity shocks

Tumiso Suping

Sectors & Industries

Economic Insights: South Africa (30/06/25)

Jun 30, 2025

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9 min read

Economic Insights: South Africa (30/06/25)

Resilience at a Crossroads. South Africa's macroeconomic landscape stands at a critical juncture. Anchored inflation, fluctuating capital flows, and bold policy initiatives coexist with mounting global trade tensions, domestic fiscal strain, and political volatility. While global investors continue rotating out of emerging markets, South Africa finds itself defending against a multifaceted capital exodus. Yet within this pressure lies opportunity.

Shawn Agaba

Jun 26, 2025

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7 min read

Economic Insights: Botswana (26/06/25)

Botswana's economy remains in a corrective phase, with mixed signals across key indicators. The Bank of Botswana held the interest rates, and Botswana has consistently recorded trade deficits for over a year.

Tumiso Suping

Economic Insights: South Africa (24/06/25)

Jun 24, 2025

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25 min read

Economic Insights: South Africa (24/06/25)

South Africa's macroeconomic landscape stands at a critical juncture. Anchored inflation, fluctuating capital flows, and bold policy initiatives coexist with mounting global trade tensions, domestic fiscal strain, and political volatility. While global investors continue rotating out of emerging markets, South Africa finds itself defending against a multifaceted capital exodus. Yet within this pressure lies opportunity.

Shawn Agaba

Economic Insights: America's & Europe (08/04/25)

Apr 8, 2025

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67 min read

Economic Insights: America's & Europe (08/04/25)

The past week marked a defining inflection point for developed markets, as global trade ruptures collided with an already fragile macroeconomic recovery. The imposition of sweeping tariffs by the United States has ignited retaliatory threats, fractured investor sentiment, and forced central banks to reconsider their tightening bias. While labour markets remain resilient in pockets, the broader economic narrative is tilting toward stagflation, with inflationary supply shocks clashing against weakening demand. Markets are now repricing risk, rotating out of growth and into safety, as policymakers face a narrowing window to restore confidence.

Shawn Agaba