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What if tariffs actually drive US Manufacturing? Autodesk, Inc.

We explore Autodesk, Inc. who provide software tools that aid the manufacturing process from the design to the production stages. We believe the use of Autodesk's software will increase because tariffs and protectionist policies will, to some degree, drive local innovation and manufacturing revival, not just the US but all other economies looking to reduce their independence on China. All manufacturing efforts starts with product design and idea generation before any form of production occurs.

What does Autodesk, Inc (ADSK) do?

Autodesk produces software for computer-aided design (CAD), computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) and computer animation.

Their products are used in the fields of manufacturing, architecture, building technology and civil engineering, automotive and transportation, mechanics and mechanical engineering, media and entertainment as well as utilities and telecommunications.

Its products include, AutoCAD, BIM Collaborate Pro, Revit, Civil 3D, Fusion 360, InfraWorks, Inventor, Maya, PlanGrid, Revit, Shotgun, and 3ds Max.

To read a summary of our full company analysis on Autodesk here’s our research report:

ADSK - Autodesk - long.pdf414.15 KB • PDF File

Impact of Tariffs on Manufacturing

Tariffs (e.g., 25% on Mexico/Canada imports, 20% on China) are accelerating supply chain diversification, with companies like Apple, Tesla, and Micron expanding U.S. semiconductor and EV battery production. While some manufacturing may shift to other low-cost Asian countries (e.g., Vietnam, India), the U.S. is seeing increased investment in high-tech sectors like semiconductors and advanced manufacturing.

There are economic trade-offs, in the short term tariffs may reduce U.S. GDP by 0.4% and eliminate ~309,000 jobs due to higher input prices, in the long-term, domestic manufacturing could grow in strategic sectors (e.g., EVs, chips) due to policy incentives like the CHIPS Act.

However, retaliatory tariffs (e.g., China’s 35% brandy tariffs) and EU/India/Mexico trade barriers are creating a fragmented global market, forcing manufacturers to localize production.

Can Autodesk benefit from these effects on Manufacturing?

Companies adapting to tariffs will need CAD/CAM/PLM software to, optimize production costs amid rising expenses. They’ll also need it to enable digital twins and AI-driven design for resilient supply chains. Autodesk’s Product Design & Manufacturing Collection 2025 positions it as a key provider for reshored manufacturing workflows.

Autodesk advocates for policies supporting digital transformation, including AI adoption, workforce upskilling, and infrastructure modernization—all critical for tariff-affected industries.

When looking at sector-Specific opportunities, Autodesk’s Fusion 360 and PowerMill are critical for semiconductor/EV sectors facing tariff-driven reshoring. For construction and infrastructure, tariffs on steel/aluminum (25%) may increase demand for BIM software to manage costs, aligning with Autodesk’s Revit and AutoCAD tools.

While U.S. reshoring is a focus, Autodesk can leverage growth in ASEAN and India, where manufacturers are replacing Chinese exports to tariff-affected markets. The reshoring play is also possible for other developed economies that may follow the footsteps of the US.

However, prolonged trade disputes could slow industrial investment, delaying software adoption. While Autodesk still leads the market, Siemens (Solid Edge) and Dassault (CATIA) remain strong rivals in CAD/CAM markets.

In conclusion, tariffs are likely to drive moderate growth in U.S. and allied-market manufacturing, particularly in strategic sectors. Autodesk stands to benefit through increased demand for cost-optimization tools in reshored operations and policy-driven emphasis on AI/digitalization in manufacturing where Autodesk is closely availed as a partner.

However, benefits depend on how quickly manufacturers adopt advanced technologies versus absorbing tariff-related cost increases. Autodesk’s focus on AI, cloud integration, and workforce development positions it to capitalize on these trends if global protectionism persists.

Summary

Part of being a good investor is remaining objective and ensuring that your portfolio can still generate returns under all macroeconomic conditions and regimes. Since the CoVID pandemic, there has been a global pivot towards protectionist regimes and a walkback from globalisation which has been fuelled by talks of tariffs from Trump.

In this context, we, at Regal Capital, aren’t too concerned about how effective these economic policy will be at achieving government objectives but focus on identifying winners and losers from whatever policy is implemented where we buy in stocks and companies that have the potential to benefit from newly implemented policy like tariffs and sell on those stocks and companies that we believe may be losers from the policy.

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