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Economic Insights: Africa (04/03/25)
In this week we take a deeper dive into the 2 largest economies of Africa. South Africa narrowly avoided recession with 0.6% Q4 growth, while Nigeria's economy accelerated to 3.84% in Q4 2024. Despite challenges like inflation and debt, Africa's overall growth is projected to strengthen, driven by services and regional integration. Opportunities in minerals and trade offer potential for sustained growth amidst global uncertainties.
Economic Insights: Developed Markets (03/03/2025)
This past week, a series of pivotal macroeconomic developments across developed markets delivered significant implications for interest rate trajectories, trade policy, and sectoral investment trends. The evolving landscape presents a complex mix of opportunities and risks across asset classes, requiring a discerning approach to positioning portfolios for resilience and growth.
What do you do when you can't get a job? Fiverr & Upwork
Many graduates and talented individuals struggle to land conventional jobs. We explore the 'gig' economy, where platforms like Fiverr and Upwork are increasingly becoming lifelines for those looking to monetize their skills without the constraints of a 9-to-5 role or the stresses of starting a business.
Economic Insights: Africa (24/02/25)
Africa's economic outlook remains mixed as 2025 unfolds. South Africa faces fiscal uncertainty with the delayed Budget Speech and power crises. Nigeria’s central bank held rates at 27.5% amid stabilizing inflation, while Botswana remains in recession, banking on a diamond industry recovery. Uganda's private sector contracted for the first time in nearly a year due to weak demand and rising costs. Ethiopia pushes forward with economic liberalization, launching its first stock market in decades. Despite inflation and external risks, Africa’s projected 4.3% growth in 2025 presents cautious optimism, with long-term investment potential.
Economic Insights: Developed Markets (24/02/25)
This past week global markets faced challenges as U.S. trade tensions escalated and loan delinquencies rose. The U.K. struggles with unexpected inflation, while the EU grapples with stagnant growth. Asia-Pacific deals with China’s export controls, and Australia eases rates to boost its economy. Inflation, trade uncertainty, and shifting policies remain key risks for investors.
Selling the dreams of self-drive taxis and humanoids: Tesla, Inc
In September 2024, we reported on Tesla, highlighting our short-sell position. This article looks at what has happened since then. Our belief was, and still is, that Tesla will continue to face slower growth in sales and profits due to higher competition and an outdated product portfolio. Consumer preferences have shifted to mostly Plug-In Hybrids while Tesla has remained fully electric and has no new models besides the Cybertruck and Model Y.
Slowly Chipping Away: Microchip Technology, Inc
In January 2024, we published a report covering our short position on Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP). Revenue shortfalls, strategic restructuring, leadership transitions, and market downgrades contributed to the decline in MCHP's stock value throughout 2024.
Clouded by competition: Oracle Corporation
Oracle Corporation’s pivot to cloud services has captured headlines, but we believe its growth potential is overestimated, creating a compelling short trade idea. Despite its efforts, Oracle faces stiff competition and significant challenges that may lead to disappointing earnings and missed revenue estimates in the near future.
Should Botswana Increase Minimum Wage to P4000?
Botswana’s new govt. proposed minimum wage increase to P4,000 represents a 203% jump from the current rate of P1,321 for general workers. While the move could significantly improve living standards and reduce income inequality in one of the world’s most unequal societies, it also poses risks to employment, business sustainability, and economic competitiveness.
Will 2025 Be South Africa’s Economic Turning Point?
A renewed political coalition and improving business confidence signal hope for South Africa's economy in 2025. However, challenges such as fiscal pressures, infrastructure deficits, and high unemployment underscore the need for sustained reforms and prudent governance to achieve meaningful growth.